Enthios Trade Blog

ER2 2007 Archive
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With the new charts, you can view trades with the system simply by clicking on "charts -> Trade Detail" as shown here. Note that these are all trades using the double stochastic entry of the Universal, and the Keltner exit with no stop. They are not filtered by the VPC's, which really make the system work. But they are a good indicator of how effective the entry and exit mechanisms are, even without any other filters.

This is an example of trading without stops on the ER. It is constructed for educational purposes only. It assumes that we take all Universal trades, long or short, regardless of time of day, and regardless of whether there is a VPC. It assumes one contract only, and that the exit is at the opposite Keltner, regardless of whether it is a profit or a loss. you can see that in the past four days, it has generated 18 trades, of which 13 were winners. The one big loser from today is also shown.

Here you can see that in most cases, the Keltner exit acts as a stop - except in runaway markets.

Watch the stochastic on this...

If stochastic rolls over...

Here you can see that in most cases, the Keltner exit acts as a stop - except in runaway markets.

Watch the stochastic on this...

If stochastic rolls over...

This is a good example of how trading without stops can actually benefit you. In most cases, using the opposing Keltner band as an exit target will give you a profit or, at worst, a reasonable stop exit. Even if the market drops below what most people would set as a stop loss, it usually rebounds to give you a better Keltner exit. Balancing against this are the few days when the market breaks out of the range and the Keltner exit is not triggered before a 10~20 point loss. These days MUST be figured in to your calculations for which stop method you prefer to use.

This shows the current correction as a standard Fibonacci .382 retrace. As you can see, there is good support at the .382 retracement level of 844...

Notice the market has gapped down...

This shows the Market Profile VPC from May 18 at 818.20.
Note also a secondary pennant at 821.10, which is the current support in the market.

Note how prices touched 827 on Friday. That was the Seed Wave target
(see second chart below).

Fibonacci Seed Wave

This chart shows the Fibonacci Wave 3 target based upon the initial push up on May 16. The target for the third wave is typically 1.382~1.618x the top of the first wave, as shown here. Also, typically the size of the third wave is equal to the size of the first wave - though this is less important.

Add on to previous trade if already short...

The 822.90 POC that was traded through on May 1 may offer reasonable resistance
because the market dropped through so quickly. If you are looking for al ong in this area,
822.90 might be a good place. Otherwise, look for 814.60 for longs and 835.7 for shorts...

Market gapped below 833.30 VPC so NTR is revised accordingly...

ER triggered long during the overnight trading session, so the
current long signal at market open would be invalidated.
Actually it is entirely at the trader's discretion. Most important to be
consistent with your trading rules.

short signal approaching @ vpc

Fibonacci Wave3 target hit; possible extension to Wave5? Target would be
2.23~2.62x the size of the original seed wave.

Here you have several choices. After the trade moves in your direction but not sufficiently enough to trigger an exit, then moves back towards the original entry point, you can take a break-even stop. Another option is to simply hold and wait for a keltner exit signal. If another long is triggered in the meantime, as shown below, you could add to the existing trade. These are just choices. They are entirely up to you.