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This chart illusrates how you can take a break-even stop after the trade moves in your direction but reverses at or near the Keltner before you are able to get out.

 

IWM is the underlying ETF for the ER2. It is a better instrument to consider for swing trades, because there is no contract expiration. So far, the 30-min swing trades on the IWM show a 84% success rate since August 2007. This is no indication of future performance.

 

 


Intermediate VPC Ranges

Here is an explanation of how to set minor (and, for that matter, major) VPC 'ranges' using the DPL study. To do so, you will want to add a new DPL study first to your Price Histogram chart (reminder: 5min or 30min chart, day session only), and then to your Universal chart (reminder: 50-range for ES and ER, 24 hour session).

First add the lines as shown below. Copy it to a new "tab" that is not already being used. Here, I have the settings on Tab 12.

This is how it should look on your Price Histo chart. As you can see, we have added the range around the minor VPC. The range is the "rim of the volcano" that forms the point. If it is an exact point, then you might want to just ahve one line. If it is very blunt, then you may want to ignore it altogether.

Then, add a DPL study to your Universal chart. Just click on Tab 12. Presto!


 

This chart illustrates how you can anticipate the stochastic rollove by simply exiting on a limit order when the slow stochastic hits the 20 band. In this way, you do not have to use a stop order on the exit, which will always cost you a few ticks.

 

 

About setting up your charts if you do not have Ensign

Remember that this is a two-chart system:

  1. Market-Profile or Price Histogram (Preferably 5 min, or 30min if you need to "look back" farther

    It is easy to set up the charts yourself, assuming your charting program has a Market Profile or Price Histogram indicator. If not, you can still mark your charts manually by checking our blogs each morning:

    http://www.enthios.com/blogs/esblog.htm
    http://www.enthios.com/blogs/er2blog.htm
    http://www.enthios.com/blogs/ymblog.htm

     

  2. Universal Chart with oscillators and exit targets.  (Preferably 50-range for es and er2).
  • Fast Stochastic: 9,3,3  with an adaptive average. In Ensign, we use Howard's special version.
  • Slow Stochastic: 81,27,27 with an adaptive average. Note this is 9x the faster stochastic.
  • Keltner: 3, 60 for es; 3.8, 60 for ER2; 3, 60 for ym;  with an adaptive average.

We have had many requests from users of other charting programs that do not use  Range charts, for how to "port" the settings over.  The most important chart for intraday trading is the Market Profile or Price Histogram.  Of lesser importance is the Universal.  Instead it is important to understand what the Universal does: it simply uses oscillators (one short term, one longer term for confirmation) to help you get into the trade. It then uses a Keltner band, which is an average of the trading range, to target the exit.  You can use any oscillator,  including MACD, CCI, RSI, or even two moving averages.

As for time frames, if your charting program does not have Range bars then we would suggest you use tick charts (start with 100~300 tick), or a 1-minute chart.  You can "map" the time frame to ours by observing the charts that we post to the blogs.

 


For  more 2008 trades, see the 2008 Archive


 

 

 

Chat room log from 3/4


Session Start: Mon Mar 03 06:02:54 2008
Session Ident: #enthios
[06:02] * Now talking in #enthios
[06:02] * Topic is ' 0,2 8,10 ENTHIOS.COM Live Signals 0,2 1,0 Futures Trading. Free to Join. Our 9th Year. Featuring the Universal Method. '
[06:02] * Set by X on Mon Feb 25 07:19:36
[06:02] -X- Authorization Granted on channel #enthios
[06:03] <Widgetman> there is my jam
[06:03] <Widgetman> I expected
[06:04] <Widgetman> on euro
[06:04] <Widgetman> sorry
[06:14] <enthios> good morning
[06:14] <enthios> Today's Natural Trading Ranges (NTR) for ES, ER2, YM and NQ:
[06:14] <enthios> 10,10. 1,0 S&P : http://www.enthios.com/blogs/esblog.htm
[06:14] <enthios> 7,7. 1,0 ER2 : http://www.enthios.com/blogs/er2blog.htm
[06:14] <enthios> 13,13. 1,0 YM : http://www.enthios.com/blogs/ymblog.htm
[06:14] <enthios> 9,9. 1,0 NQ : http://www.enthios.com/blogs/nqblog.htm
[06:15] <c4s> gm everyone
[06:16] <smik8153> gm
[06:19] <Rey5601> gm
[06:24] <Fpych> gm all
[06:27] * Protrader good morning
[06:28] * subq - market profile charts for today - http://www.charthub.com/chart/search/mpchart
[06:29] <jjs> good morning
[06:32] <eric> gm group
[06:35] <enthios> thanks subq
[06:35] <enthios> gm everyone
[06:35] <enthios> only YM has an imminent long trade
[06:37] <enthios> 13,13. 1,0 YM Blog Update: 12 http://www.enthios.com/blogs/ymblog.htm
[06:37] <enthios> 13,13. 1,0 long signal approaching @ vpc
[06:43] <enthios> Note the slow stochastic is not in alignment
[06:48] <smik8153> ISM mfg index at 10:00
[06:54] <enthios> short the financials, long agriculture
[06:54] <enthios> :)
[06:54] <enthios> it's the "plastics" of the 21st century
[06:54] <enthios> (recalling that famous line from The Graduate)
[06:54] <c4s> lol
[06:55] <c4s> one word - plastics
[06:55] <enthios> As food become more scarce and arable land is used to create energy, prices will go up.
[06:56] <enthios> Does anyone here trade those super baskets (or whatever they are called)
[06:56] <enthios> ?
[06:57] <Protrader> no
[06:58] <Al> no
[07:01] <billytom> 10:00U.S. construction spending falls 1.7% in January
[07:02] <enthios> just missed our long signal
[07:02] <enthios> by the hair of its chinny chin chin
[07:02] <billytom> no. i got your posting
[07:03] <billytom> and long at YM 12189
[07:03] <billytom> thank you
[07:03] <enthios> did your stochastics line up?
[07:03] <eric> 12228 friday low
[07:03] <billytom> yes.
[07:03] <enthios> great!
[07:03] <enthios> mine didn't
[07:03] <billytom> but i use slow one.
[07:04] <eric> 12223 2/11 poc, 1225 2/7 POC
[07:04] <eric> maybe we geta pullback
[07:05] <enthios> yes, i use slow one also...it did not go below 20 on my chart
[07:06] <eric> there's our keltner exit :(
[07:06] <DigeratiX> it went low for me
[07:06] <DigeratiX> below 20
[07:07] <enthios> interesting
[07:07] <enthios> i just did a refresh
[07:07] <enthios> and mine went low
[07:07] <enthios> but fast stochstic was not lined up
[07:07] <DigeratiX> http://charts.dacharts.com/2008-03-03/digerati-08.png
[07:08] <Leek> not lined up here as well
[07:08] <enthios> Diger, looks like you did not refresh your charts
[07:08] <eric> http://charts.dacharts.com/2008-03-03/eric10.png
[07:09] <DigeratiX> well I just opend it not long ago
[07:09] <maxdata> i have keltner wider than on that chart eric
[07:09] <DigeratiX> just did a 24hour refresh
[07:09] <DigeratiX> no change in looks
[07:09] <eric> are using 3.0 setting or 3.8?
[07:09] <DigeratiX> 3.0
[07:10] <maxdata> 3
[07:10] <eric> did u so a full refresh since 6pm yesterday?
[07:10] <enthios> http://charts.dacharts.com/2008-03-03/E_45.png
[07:10] <DigeratiX> yes hence the "24hour " refresh
[07:10] <DigeratiX> you can see my 8:30 line
[07:11] <DigeratiX> WOW
[07:11] <DigeratiX> refresh JUST NOW kicked in
[07:11] <DigeratiX> sloooooow
[07:11] <eric> dig, your lat data since this morning is friday afternoon
[07:11] <eric> u are missing overnight since yesterday
[07:11] <enthios> :)
[07:11] <enthios> sorry to take that good trade away from you ! :P
[07:11] <DigeratiX> http://charts.dacharts.com/2008-03-03/digerati-09.png
[07:11] <DigeratiX> now it looks like that
[07:12] <enthios> http://charts.dacharts.com/2008-03-03/E_45.png
[07:12] <enthios> I'd much prefer it to look like the one you posted :-(
[07:12] <DigeratiX> hahha
[07:12] <enthios> This is the problem with an objective method
[07:12] <enthios> But I wouldn't have it any other way
[07:13] <eric> 686.3 large POC er2 2/22
[07:14] <DigeratiX> my ES chart doesnt seem to really want to refresh
[07:14] <DigeratiX> yet....
[07:15] <enthios> shorts lining up on ES and ER
[07:15] <leeker> http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-11-01/Lars78.png
[07:15] <eric> Dig, switch to DTN and refresh max
[07:16] <eric> then put it back to IB
[07:16] <leeker> enthio. does my chart on the YM look like it is right. I refreshed it
[07:16] <DigeratiX> forgive me for being stupid, I dont see a MAX on the 50range chart to refresh to
[07:16] <eric> TODAY, sorry
[07:16] <DigeratiX> k
[07:17] <Iwill> for those who watch the market all day ... how do you trade the enthios system? Do you monitor the 4 indices for possible setups?
[07:17] <maxdata> y
[07:18] <eric> set price alert lines with sound a few points above/below VPCs
[07:19] <eric> "set it and forget it!"
[07:19] <cuzzo> Dig be careful with your refreshes if your using IB
[07:20] <cuzzo> other wise you will get pacing violation
[07:20] <DigeratiX> ok
[07:20] <cuzzo> just reminding ya bud
[07:20] <eric> that is why DTN is a better choice
[07:20] <cuzzo> oh yes it is
[07:20] <eric> they have more ticks/packet as well
[07:20] <cuzzo> eric how much do you pay
[07:20] <eric> i only refresh using IB for 33mins if I get dosconnected
[07:21] <cuzzo> dtz is what about 75 a month
[07:21] <eric> IB is free
[07:21] <cuzzo> dtn sorry
[07:21] <eric> free delayed through ensign
[07:21] <cuzzo> oh thought you meant you have dtn data
[07:21] <eric> will i do, i suppose :)
[07:21] <cuzzo> i see you refresh on dtn lol
[07:21] <billytom> i am out YM at 263. Thank you Enthios
[07:22] <enthios> excellent !
[07:22] <cuzzo> nice billtom
[07:22] <eric> i wished i sin't refresh today
[07:22] <eric> didn't
[07:22] <enthios> me too
[07:22] <enthios> 7,7. 1,0 ER2 Blog Update: 12 http://www.enthios.com/blogs/er2blog.htm
[07:22] <enthios> 7,7. 1,0 Short signal approaching @ VPC
[07:24] <eric> YM based on 12223-12225 POC cluster mentioned earlier
[07:29] <eric> 689.5 er2 friday close
[07:30] <enthios> yes, all (es, er, ym) are stalling at those clusteres
[07:30] <enthios> finding resistance for time being
[07:31] <enthios> those thinking short, may be a good excuse for a scalp
[07:33] * Protrader market trading between the close and friday's low
[07:33] <julian> you mean there are bulls left? lol
[07:34] <eric> YM weakest index vs. fri close
[07:35] * Protrader 230 key hold
[07:37] <eric> anybody know how to read Buffy's charts?
[07:37] <cuzzo> not me
[07:37] <enthios> sorry eric, i tried for years
[07:37] <eric> lol
[07:37] <enthios> they sure are pretty, though
[07:37] <cuzzo> Buffy is great lady but i dont understand all that stuff
[07:37] <eric> very trippy
[07:38] <eric> i understood 2 years ago
[07:38] <cuzzo> she gives a lot to everyone fantastic lady
[07:38] <eric> clearly she has made some modifications
[07:38] <cuzzo> its just way too much stuff
[07:38] <enthios> actually, the basic idea is catching 2nd touch on reversals
[07:38] <cuzzo> what MOF?
[07:38] <eric> she would do playbacks sat mornings, which was nice
[07:38] <enthios> did you ever learn the B-line and MOF?
[07:39] <cuzzo> yeh liek is said she is the best
[07:39] <cuzzo> not me E
[07:39] <cuzzo> i cant trade on charts like that
[07:39] <eric> i remeber faintly the bline
[07:39] <enthios> I used to ask specific questions about 'what point did you enter the trade?'
[07:39] <enthios> 'where did you exit?'
[07:39] <eric> she was looking for a visual of a suck with a beak or something
[07:39] <cuzzo> i did try few years ago but i got lost
[07:39] <eric> duck
[07:40] <enthios> it seems to work for some people, though
[07:40] <eric> i was never really clear on that either, and everbody seemed to be doing their own thing
[07:40] <enthios> yes
[07:40] <enthios> lots of beautiful charts
[07:40] <enthios> none of them showing entry and exit points
[07:40] <enthios> which, for me, is how you learn
[07:40] <enthios> even if they are subjective points
[07:41] <cuzzo> i am liking price action the best
[07:41] <enthios> but, everyone is different
[07:41] <cuzzo> and using your system to see it
[07:41] <cuzzo> i do like your setup
[07:41] <enthios> buffy actually wrote the price action chapter of my book !
[07:41] <cuzzo> clean charts and all
[07:42] <cuzzo> really she did?
[07:42] <enthios> yup
[07:42] <cuzzo> she has helped me when i had IB problems
[07:42] <cuzzo> she is always there for you
[07:42] <cuzzo> she will put your first over herself
[07:42] <cuzzo> you dont get that from many people
[07:42] <enthios> actually i t's the appendix
[07:42] <enthios> page 221
[07:44] <eric> just took me about 45 seconds to click all the ads on all the blogs
[07:45] <DigeratiX> let me do the same
[07:45] <eric> for just 45 secs a day, u can adopt a trading system
[07:45] <enthios> thanks gang
[07:45] <smik8153> Looks like we are at the .5 fibo on YM if im doing correctly
[07:46] <enthios> the lowe poc cluster is proving strong resistance - for now
[07:46] <DigeratiX> E on the ES I just got a alert long and a blue arrow pointing up, it is not showing a price there. I see it happens sometimes andnot sometimes, am I missing something?
[07:46] <Audi> Enthios - I just ordered your book "Frontiers.." How current is your book?
[07:46] <enthios> Diger, no you're correct
[07:46] <enthios> I don't understand why the price doesn't show up right away
[07:47] <DigeratiX> does it happen to you as well then?
[07:47] <enthios> Seems it 'waits' until another arrow has painted, until the price for the previous arrow shows up
[07:47] <enthios> i've been meaning to ask howard about it
[07:47] <DigeratiX> k
[07:47] <DigeratiX> thought it was just me
[07:47] <enthios> Audi, published in 2003
[07:48] <enthios> Chapter 10 talks about the Market Profile / Price Histogram
[07:48] <enthios> Pg. 157 introduces the Natural Trading Range
[07:48] <cuzzo> question for anyone in the room
[07:48] <cuzzo> does anyone here use sierra charts
[07:48] <enthios> The Universal Method was a natural outgrowth of those two chapters
[07:49] <cuzzo> and how do you like it
[07:49] <cuzzo> cool E
[07:49] <DigeratiX> on the dvd, how current is the uni method
[07:49] <Audi> Are you working on a new book?
[07:51] <Audi> Enthios - I sent you email regarding accessibility into forum. I figured out how to change preferences so my yahoo will accept invitions. Have you received it? Sent it on the weekend.
[07:53] <cuzzo> went into radio shack yesterday just to look at sirous radio
[07:54] <cuzzo> and i seen a pc there for sale
[07:54] <cuzzo> 450 bucks
[07:54] <cuzzo> dual core 2g ram and 500 hard drive all in a mini case
[07:54] <cuzzo> so it is not expandale but not bad at all
[07:54] <cuzzo> windows vista perium
[07:55] <maxdata> cuzzo tradingcomputers.com has great products
[07:55] <cuzzo> the guy was great and he ytried to explain to me about windows mac and linux
[07:55] <cuzzo> yeh max
[07:55] <cuzzo> thank you
[07:55] <cuzzo> i seen another site last nite
[07:55] <cuzzo> cheqap gaming pc
[07:55] <cuzzo> ill post it in a bit
[07:56] <cuzzo> cant belive its so cheap for gaming pc
[07:56] <maxdata> great
[07:56] <DigeratiX> i setup two 8 monitor systems here for two traders
[07:56] <cuzzo> just give me few min and ill post teh page im involved right now
[07:56] <DigeratiX> came in under what tradingcomputers would have
[07:56] <DigeratiX> but tradingcomputers seems like a good outfit
[07:56] <cuzzo> that is the key
[07:57] <cuzzo> are they good
[07:57] <maxdata> yes they have better prices than xview
[07:57] <cuzzo> and i heard they are
[07:57] <DigeratiX> yes reasonable and good support from what I heard from them
[07:57] <cuzzo> besides doesnt woodie sponser them so they have to be lol
[07:57] <DigeratiX> they have a 3/4 week build time though
[07:58] <cuzzo> i went to sams club yesterday
[07:58] <cuzzo> HP quad core with a 24 inch lcd for 875
[07:58] <cuzzo> man
[07:58] <cuzzo> that is cheap
[07:58] <cuzzo> on vista premium
[07:58] <eric> ym through fri colse, es, er2 holding
[07:58] <cuzzo> but i dont need all that garbage they put in so i want to have 1 built
[07:59] <cuzzo> so no one in here uses sierra?
[08:00] <Pappy> good deal for that ho cuzzo, where?
[08:00] <Pappy> hp
[08:00] <cuzzo> sams club
[08:00] <cuzzo> which is same as walmart
[08:00] <cuzzo> but the 24 inch moniter was a beauty
[08:00] <eric> an emachine gives good value and is expandable
[08:00] <cuzzo> wide screen
[08:01] <DigeratiX> yeah dad has emachine, no troubles
[08:01] <cuzzo> eric which one is expanadle
[08:01] <eric> emachine
[08:01] <cuzzo> oh emachine?
[08:01] <eric> am using one now as laptop and other desktop crashed beyond repair :(
[08:01] <cuzzo> question when you buy a pc at a store liek best buy circuit cirty whatever
[08:01] <cuzzo> are they expandable or not much?
[08:02] <eric> figure out what u want and price shop it online
[08:02] <eric> u can always buy it cheaper online
[08:02] <cuzzo> i guess your stuck with the motherboard but i guess you can just put in more memory and thats it?
[08:02] <eric> and possibly save the tx $
[08:02] <eric> tax
[08:02] <cuzzo> does anyone use quad core yet?
[08:02] <eric> pretty much
[08:02] <cuzzo> ok eric cool
[08:02] <eric> pretty much
[08:03] <cuzzo> or dual core is ok as well?
[08:03] <cuzzo> im afraid teh quad core will get too hot
[08:03] <cuzzo> but i dont know
[08:04] <Leek> anyone know how to add a daily price line on an ensign chart.. I don't see it in studies.. is that a dyo?
[08:04] <cuzzo> hey Leeker
[08:05] <cuzzo> you see where support is
[08:05] <cuzzo> on top
[08:05] <cuzzo> day levels is to teh left of that
[08:05] <cuzzo> sorry typo mistake
[08:05] <Leek> I want a custom daily price line
[08:06] <cuzzo> well you go there and make the custom thing and then save it
[08:06] <cuzzo> to whatever custom you desire
[08:06] <Leek> Like I want a $TICK chart and draw +400 and -400 on that chart.. permanent
[08:06] <Leek> ok. I follow you
[08:07] <cuzzo> ok so open a tick chart
[08:07] <Leek> ok.. will check it out
[08:07] <cuzzo> and then use range interval +1200 -1200
[08:07] <cuzzo> then add your lines at +400 -400
[08:08] <eric> http://charts.dacharts.com/2008-03-03/eric11.png
[08:08] <Leek> you mean add those in daily price line
[08:08] <eric> YM .786 fib on VPC
[08:09] <eric> if u get to .786 though, resumption of trend is unlikely
[08:09] * Protrader bb later
[08:10] <enthios> yup
[08:10] <eric> YM real weak today
[08:10] <enthios> yes, everything weak
[08:10] <cuzzo> Leeker yes
[08:10] <cuzzo> remember what you showed me on friday
[08:11] <cuzzo> with teh daily lines
[08:11] <cuzzo> make another one and use teh top 2 for +400 and -400
[08:11] <cuzzo> and in description you put PRICE
[08:12] <cuzzo> and then save that to maybe tab 4 or whatever tab is free
[08:12] <smik8153> eric so you mean expect a continuation downard tren?
[08:12] <cuzzo> and that will be your TICK tab
[08:12] <smik8153> trend
[08:14] <eric> new appraisal rules would make it virtually impossible for high LTV homeowners to refi
[08:15] <Leek> cuzzo.. I got that setup on the daily price line.. now I also added $TRIN on subwindow 2.. how do I put daily price line to sub window 2
[08:15] <Leek> or can that be done.. because it defaults to chart
[08:15] <cuzzo> that i do not know
[08:16] <cuzzo> you cant use daily price lines for that i dont think
[08:16] <cuzzo> maybe with a dyo
[08:16] <cuzzo> sorry Leeekr i do wish i can help
[08:16] <Leek> np
[08:16] <cuzzo> maybe ensign support or soemone in here
[08:16] <cuzzo> but you got teh tick done now right?
[08:16] <Leek> I can always create separate chart for $trin
[08:16] <Leek> $tick is done..thanks
[08:16] <cuzzo> ok that is good
[08:18] <Leek> cuzzo.. I see a problem
[08:19] <Leek> on the $tick chart.. when I scroll the chart.. the whole daily price lines move .. but it should not move in the chart
[08:24] <enthios> back in a bit
[08:24] * enthios is now known as enthios_afk
[08:24] * Disconnected
Session Close: Mon Mar 03 08:24:41 2008

Session Start: Mon Mar 03 11:02:42 2008
Session Ident: #enthios
[11:02] * Now talking in #enthios
[11:02] * Topic is ' 0,2 8,10 ENTHIOS.COM Live Signals 0,2 1,0 Futures Trading. Free to Join. Our 9th Year. Featuring the Universal Method. '
[11:02] * Set by X on Mon Feb 25 07:19:36
[11:02] -X- Authorization Granted on channel #enthios
[11:03] <enthios> .
[11:05] <Zendo> ..
[11:05] <enthios> ...
[11:06] <enthios> looks like i didn't miss much
[11:06] <enthios> Zendo, what does your nickname mean?
[11:06] <Zendo> i don t know, but maly the wy of zen
[11:06] <Zendo> way
[11:06] <Zendo> maybe
[11:09] <enthios> lol
[11:09] <enthios> you don't know?!?
[11:09] <yiman> the way of zen
[11:11] <enthios> thanks, yiman
[11:11] <enthios> actually, i happen to know what it means because i speak japanese
[11:11] <enthios> but was curious about why Zendo chose it as a nickname :)
[11:12] <yiman> zen usualy means the way of the mind emphasis on mindful acceptance of the present moment
[11:12] <yiman> oh sorry
[11:12] <enthios> Our long trade still has not triggered and since prices have not traded through the 12190 VPC, the signal is still valid
[11:12] <Zendo> the way of zen for trading
[11:12] <Zendo> quiet mind
[11:12] <Zendo> conzentration
[11:13] <enthios> Actually, zen means many things. For example, it refers to experiential learning, rather than academic.
[11:13] <Zendo> maybe thats the reason i choose this name
[11:13] <enthios> cool
[11:13] <yiman> similar to indian dhyana
[11:13] <enthios> and Chinese chan
[11:14] <enthios> okay, back in a bit...
[11:14] * enthios is now known as enthios_afk
[13:33] * Disconnected
Session Close: Mon Mar 03 13:33:10 2008

Session Start: Mon Mar 03 13:34:46 2008
Session Ident: #enthios
[13:34] * Now talking in #enthios
[13:34] * Topic is ' 0,2 8,10 ENTHIOS.COM Live Signals 0,2 1,0 Futures Trading. Free to Join. Our 9th Year. Featuring the Universal Method. '
[13:34] * Set by X on Mon Feb 25 07:19:36
[13:34] -X- Authorization Granted on channel #enthios
[14:00] <enthios> Tomorrow's Natural Trading Ranges (NTR) for ES, ER2, and YM:
[14:00] <enthios> 10,10. 1,0 S&P : http://www.enthios.com/blogs/esblog.htm
[14:00] <enthios> 7,7. 1,0 ER2 : http://www.enthios.com/blogs/er2blog.htm
[14:00] <enthios> 13,13. 1,0 YM : http://www.enthios.com/blogs/ymblog.htm
[14:00] <enthios> 9,9. 1,0 NQ : http://www.enthios.com/blogs/nqblog.htm
[14:02] <enthios> 12 Note the market closed right on the POC, so there may be some early morning trades (any time after 8:30 Eastern) as the market comes back into equilibrium pre-market, then bounces back away....
[14:02] <enthios> see you tomorrow
Session Close: Tue Mar 04 05:51:13 2008