Natural Trading Range (NTR)

The expected natural trading range for the day.

Normally the upper and lower boundaries for the NTR are the closest Virgin Points of Control (VPC) above, and below, the opening price. VPC's are shown in this chart as horizontal white lines.  You can also see a "normal" Point of Control (POC) that has subsequently been touched by prices; therefore it is not "virgin" (VPC) and so is not used to determine the Natural Trading Range.

In some instances, in an uptrending market (such as in the example here) there will be no VPC's above the opening price or, in an downtrending market, there will be no VPC's below the opening price.  In those cases, we use Fibonacci wave targets when an obvious one exists. In this example, prices are still in the first wave up and so we have drawn a regression channel marking the bounds of the trend, and simply anchored the upper right corner of the NTR box to the regression line price of 1210.  The right side of the NTR box represents the end of the day.

 

In the Carta Diem, we show the next day's predicted NTR on a chart that looks like this.
 
As the day enfolds, you can then compare the  "prediction" with the actual.

 

Note however that the NTR is not really a "prediction."  It simply tells us, based on previous price action, where the likely trading range will be.  It does not tell us whether the low or the high will be touched and, if so, which one will be touched first.  However, a comparison of historical NTR's does show us that prices normally tend to fit the ranges  suggested by the market profile VPC's with remarkable regularity.